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Mode Choice Models Transferability: A Bayesian Update for Two Cities in Iran

Amir Hossein Baghestani 1, Amir Reza Mamdoohi 1, Ali Reza Mahpour 1, and Azarakhsh Salem 2
1. Faculty of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2. Faculty of Engineering, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract—Bayesian updating is introduced as a method to improve results of model transferability intended for decreasing cost of related studies. The main goal of this paper is to study the effects of Bayesian updating on transferability of aggregate and disaggregate mode choice models. These models are calibrated for a city in Iran and transferred to another city. Results of employing transferability measures such as Transfer Index (TI) and goodness of fit of transfer model are evaluated in two forms of naïve and Bayesian updating. Results show that Bayesian updating can noticeably enhance transferability of disaggregate models, but not as much in aggregate models. It is concluded that applying Bayesian update approach is reliable only when transferability of naïve model is not rejected.

Index Terms—transferability, Bayesian update, mode choice model

Cite: Amir Hossein Baghestani, Amir Reza Mamdoohi, Ali Reza Mahpour, and Azarakhsh Salem, "Mode Choice Models Transferability: A Bayesian Update for Two Cities in Iran," Journal of Traffic and Logistics Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 21-25, June 2017. doi: 10.18178/jtle.5.1.21-25
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